Apple may sell 1 million Apple Watches on the launch weekend

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By Larry Banks

Apple will sell more than a million of its new smart watch, the Apple Watch, on the opening weekend starting April 10th, according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.

Apple Watch may sell a million on first weekend

As a comparison, Apple’s iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus smartphones sold an incredible 10 million units in the first three days on sale last September, according to Apple.

Here’s the thinking behind Munster’s claim:

1 million total Apple Watch units in the opening weekend would imply an attach rate of less than 1% of total iPhone users (close to half a percent). Given interest in the product and our prior survey work, a sub 1% attach rate in the opening weekend is realistic.

Apple Watch Luxury EditionMunster said he expects 300,000 watches to sell in the first 24 hours, which is an 8% attach rate of iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus users, who are Apple’s most loyal customers – and 8 million by the year end, accounting for $4.4 billion in revenue or 2% of Apple’s total.

The figure of 8 million is more bearish than most estimates, which typically are ranging between 10 and 30 million, with the consensus around 14 million. Munster however believes that Apple will sell 4o to 50 million Apple Watches by the end of 2017, meaning about 10% of iPhone owners will have purchased one.

Production of the watch is rumoured to be facing yield issues, mostly due to the difficulties of manufacturing the special OLED high-resolution display. Therefore, at launch, supplies of the new smart watch may be very tight indeed.

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